Conditional Probability of Proposal Acceptance
On the Basis of Sex
Are women who propose to men more likely to get a yes than men who propose to women? I can think of two reasons to believe they would be and one reason they wouldn’t.
Before I jump in, an appeal to anyone with knowledge or down time. I spent a few minutes researching this question, but all I could find is that somewhere between 1-3% of marriage proposals are from women to men. No data on acceptance rates. So if anyone wants to be a volunteer research assistant, I’ll give you a co-writing credit in the follow-up.
Without further ado.
For: Risk Aversion
I can’t cite any research (same deal as above), but I’m pretty sure I read sometime, somewhere in a YouTube comments section or some equally reputable source that women tend to be more risk averse than men. If that’s the case, I would expect women to propose only when their probability estimate for getting a yes passes some fairly high threshold. Contrast this to the man who carries a ring on each third and subsequent date, “just in case”. Assuming well-calibrated probability estimates, this should result in women having a higher hit rate.
For: Risk Aversion (for men)
Dating is expensive. It takes time, money, effort, and if it doesn’t work out this time, I have to incur all these costs again? That’s like having to go into debt for grad school because you couldn’t get a job with your BA. Guys don’t believe in soulmates. We just want to settle down with a modestly hot girl we get along with and leave all this dating stuff behind. So if a woman signals to a man that she wants to spend the rest of her life with him (by asking if he wants to spend the rest of his life with her)? Yeah, he’s taking the ring.
Against: Masculine Vanity
Men wear the pants. Proposing is our job. Don’t do it. Please. It’s emasculating.
Thoughts? Someday I’ll use actual data in one of these.